COVID projected. (This note was originally posted on Facebook on 25th June; it’s been updated since.)
The state of California launched a site yesterday with projections of COVID by county. Disappointing, but not surprising: Marin has a high R rating - 1.4, the highest in California. (The other county shown in red in the map below is Merced, with R ~ 1.3.)
I assume this model is skewed by the presence of the awful outbreak at San Quentin, but it's a sobering moment.
The state’s site now estimates R(eff) at 1.07; rt.live is currently projecting California with an aggregate R(t) of 1.09. Covid-projections.com says 1.1.
