(Originally posted on 12th June 2020)
13 new COVID cases in Marin, bringing the average for the past 7 days to ~14 per day
More testing ... on Tuesday, for the first time, over 1,000 tests in a single day. Average is now ~700 per day.
There are now 8 in hospital - it's been this high before, in early April; 3 remain in ICU.
The 7-day average of new cases in Marin shows a steady climb (see graph below).
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Also, I wondered about the high fatality rate in older folks as I depicted in the immediately prior post, and specifically: how many of them were in nursing homes (which governments call Skilled Nursing Facilities).
The answer is: 47% of California's entire older cohort deaths occurred in SNFs, with a simple case fatality rate of 18.8%. Californians over 65 not resident in SNFs have a simple case fatality rate of 13.4%
(6,584 health care workers in SNFs have tested positive and 67 of them have died.)
11% of SNF residents have tested positive, versus ... wait for it ... only 0.23% of non-SNF-resident Californians over the age of 65. Which is lower than the 0.34% of all Californians who have tested positive (137k / 39.58 million).
Conclusions: the easy one is that SNFs / nursing homes are dangerous places in a contagion. The harder one is about case fatality outside SNFs. I'd imagine that the super-low % that have tested positive is because they're doing rather better at sequestering themselves and aren't in the worried-well category of the tested. But that's at least in part projection.
My "simple case fatality rate" estimate = number of fatalities in cohort divided by the number of positive tests in that cohort.
I made a simplifying assumption - that every SNF resident is over 65.
Sources: Marin hhs; Kaiser Family Foundation and Calif department of public health for data on SNFs; LA Times for aggregate statewide case and fatality data.
