47 new cases. 1 death.
No new hospitalizations.
Details are a bit unclear but over the past two or so days, there seem to have been at least 59 cases in San Rafael. (The map boundaries posted by Marin HHS have changed.) The picture in southern Marin - Corte Madera, Mill Valley, Sausalito, etc., - seems unchanged, with zero new cases in the past 5 or so days. The spike in cases puts Marin in a bad position. I calculated how the new cases work out on a per-population basis, and compared Marin with Sonoma Counties, SF, the whole Bay Area (9 counties), Los Angeles County and the entirety of California.
Marin County now is seeing MORE cases (as a fraction of the population) than is average across California, and more than twice the average for the Bay Area. Sources: Marin HHS, SFist (for the Bay Area counties; their data is not 100% congruent with Marin's, so I manually reworked); LA Times and LA County. Data current through yesterday.
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Tomorrow, update on Marin, plus (I hope) discussion of the simple but important mathematics used to calculate infectious rates. Then, following a question from a neighbor / friend / reader, the maths of using masks. Your questions are welcomed.
