COVID good news / bad news
Marin: 24 new cases, no deaths, no new hospitalizations.
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I had planned to post about R, the mathematics of contagion, today. And then perhaps to the maths of using masks. But then ... I was asked if the spike in Marin county's COVID count was associated with the hotspot at San Quentin. The questioner noted (I'd mentioned this before as well) that about 100 prisoners had transferred up from Chino prison, bringing COVID with them.)
And the answer seems to be: no. Their spike adds to ours. It took rather longer to get this debugged than I'd hoped. But my best interpretation of recent town-by-town analyses for Marin for the past 10 days is shown in the table.
The analysis includes:
The LA Times data for 17th June adds to 842 for yesterday, precisely consistent with separating Marin's spike from SQ's.
Marin HHS uses language that is reasonably clear about excluding San Quentin.
The day-to-day changes in the Marin county totals are not consistent with the known changes in the San Quentin totals.
HOWEVER the numbers for 8th and 9th June, before San Quentin date were added, don't add to 625, the known-countywide total for that date.
. Thanks for the question!
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Testing in Marin County seems to be nearing 9% of the entire county. About 4% of Marin County tests are positive, which is slightly below average for the state. Nearly 3 million of the whole state's 39.5 million inhabitants (7.6%) have been tested, about 5% positive.
New cases throughout California continue to climb - over 4,000 yesterday, a new, bad record; deaths remain steady, at about 70 / day.
Sources for Marin data: Marin HHS and the Internet Archive's Wayback Machine to review some historic screen grabs of the Marin HHS website maps.
LATimes for statewide counts and fatalities.
